Climate, the inevitable rise in sea levels: “Even with a stop to fossil fuels. A minimum rise of 27 centimeters is estimated”

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Whatever measures we as humanity decide to take against the climate changenow there is no more hope of avoiding thesea ​​level rise. This is the conclusion reached by a group of scholars who have made it clear that the melting of the Greenland ice and the consequent, consistent increase in sea level, could not be prevented even if today it was completely stopped.use of fossil fuels which is contributing so much to transform the climate and life on our planet. Their study, published in the journal Nature Climate Changeshows that the rise in temperature we have reached will cause a absolute minimum growth sea ​​level of 27 cmdue to the melting of the Greenland ice alone.

As carbon emissions continue, sea level rise is likely to reach several meters. It should be noted that previous studies had also investigated the potential evolution of Greenland’s ice cover using computer models. In contrast, the study in question used as a basis satellite measurements of Greenland ice melt and ice sheet shape from 2000 to 2019. These data allowed scientists to calculate how far global warming has pushed the coverage of region ice away from the equilibrium point where snowfall can equal lost ice. The estimate of 27 cm of sea level rise it’s a minimum because it takes into account only the global warming accumulated to date and because some modes of melting of the ice at the edge of the ice sheet covering Greenland have not been considered in the calculations.

The advantage of this study is that it provides a solid estimate of the inevitable rise in sea level. However, the study is unable to estimate when the rise will occur. However, the researchers said that most of the sea level rise will occur relatively soon in their view. “This is a very conservative rise estimate,” said prof. Jason Box of the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Groenland (Geus), who led the research. “Realistically, this one esteem Sara more than double this century“. “The minimum of 27 cm is the level of sea level rise that we have accumulated to date and that will happen, regardless of what we do in the future,” said Dr. William Colgan, also from Geus. “The level will be reached in 100 or 150 years, but it will be reached. And the point is that the centimeters of the estimate will continue to grow because we are continuing to pollute ”. Colgan then added: “If 2012 (the record year of the melting of the ice in Groenlania ed.) became normal, the level of elevation would reach up to 78 cm, which is terrifying. The difference between 78 cm and 27 cm, however, highlights what still can be done through the implementation of the Paris Agreement. There is still a lot of room to minimize the damage ”.

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