Record gas prices, inflation and higher rates for a difficult context in the second half of 2022. This is the summary of the picture drawn by the Confindustria Study Center in its September flash situation. In general, “the scenario turns to the downside”. The increase in gas prices since August, “which has become out of control, in the wake of cuts in supplies from Russia” weighs heavily. The price “has reached unsustainable levels, unthinkable just a few months ago and will have the effect of pushing inflation and business costs even higher”, it is noted. Bad news comes from the production sector. According to the Confindustria Study Center, “the resilience of the industry is on the ropes, after too many months of the impact of expensive energy on business margins: investments will suffer”.
Risks also for the Italian Gross Domestic Product. In the event that the price of gas remains until the end of 2023 at 235 euro / mwh (the average value of August), the impact on the Italian economy (compared to a baseline in which is held at the average of the first 6 months of 2022: 99 euros) is estimated at a lower GDP growth of 2.2% in the two-year period and 383 thousand fewer employees. Darker scenario should it increase to 298 euro / mwh (the average level expected by futures), there is talk of a reduction in GDP of 3.2% in the two-year period and 582 thousand fewer employed. “The abnormal increase in the price of gas and the risks of shortages on volumes – it is emphasized – have a heavy impact on Italy and other European countries, gas importers. By holding back the other economies, this penalizes Italy even more, through a minor export “
Gas but not only. Record inflation is also leaving its mark (+ 8.4% year-on-year in August, according to Istat data on Friday), “which erodes household income and threatens consumption, protected (in part and not for long). ) from accumulated savings “. Furthermore, the rate hike decided by the European Central Bank “could throw further fuel on the fire as it will not be able to stop inflation (which is determined by exogenous factors) and only risks accentuating the oncoming recession, which the markets are already pricing in. in the reduction of the prices of non-energy raw materials “..