AGI – If expensive gas persists also in 2023 in Italy up to 582,000 jobs would be at risk. Confindustria affirms this in the September flash Conguntura. In detail, it is stated, two econometric simulations were conducted for the price of gas, which remains until the end of 2023: in one a price of 235 / mwh (the average value of August) was assumed, in the second of 298 / mwh (the average level expected from futures).
The impact for the Italian economy (compared to a starting point in which the price of gas is held at the average of 99 euros for the first 6 months of 2022) is estimated in a lower GDP growth of 2.2% and of 3.2% cumulative in the two-year period 2022-2023, in the two scenarios, and in 383 thousand and 582 thousand less employed.
With the “record” rise in the price of gas reached in August, due to cuts in supplies from Russia, “the resilience of the industry is on the ropes”, denounces the association led by Carlo Bonomi. After months of the impact of expensive energy on margins, now investments will “suffer”.
Therefore, “the scenario turns down”, worsened by an equally “record” inflation that “erodes household income and threatens consumption, protected (in part and not for long) from accumulated savings. The ECB replied to high prices and a weak euro by raising rates, which will give a further recessionary impetus.
However, the Confindustria Research Department points out, the prices of various commodities fall, because the world economy is weaker. Italy, on the other hand, is resisting thanks to more mobility and tourism and the (lower) growth in construction.
In our country, moreover, so far the occupation holds. More generally, for the industry with the combined effect of record inflation, high energy prices and rate hikes, “the fall materializes”.
The qualitative indicators, Confindustria continues, have in fact “worsened”: in August the SME fell even more into negative territory (48.0), signaling a recession; opinions on Istat orders are also down, anticipating lower demand; business confidence declined further, at low levels.CopyAMP code.
Industrial production showed a recovery in July (+ 0.4%), confirming the resilience of Italian companies, with a better dynamic than that of Germany and France, but is still expected to decline in the third quarter (-1.4% acquired ).
In construction, the signs of deceleration continue, after the long phase of expansion: the trend of construction sites already started is seen to decline sharply in the third quarter.
Furthermore, the recovery of tourism in Italy also supports the industry: spending by foreign travelers has now closed the gap from pre-Covid: -0.9% in June (it was -21% in April). The higher spending on services (+ 5.3% in the second quarter, but the gap still -4.5%) drove consumption, especially shopping away from home, thanks to the end of the restrictions.
In August, the services SMEs again indicated expansion, but at a very slow pace (50.5). Therefore, the rebound in services is expected to continue, more slowly, in the third quarter. Exports also appear resilient, with Italian exports of goods and services continuing to grow in the second quarter (+ 2.5%), albeit with a more moderate trend (+ 4.7% in the first), supported by acceleration in services (+ 6.6%).
In July, the growth in exports of goods continued (+ 3.8% at constant prices), supported by the sales of pharmaceutical and oil refining products; despite the fact that the PMI for foreign orders indicated a fall. World trade in the second quarter also grew again (+ 0.8%), but little, with a non-homogeneous increase between areas and with widespread increases in unused production capacity. Furthermore, the global SME foreign orders has been signaling a contraction for several months.