(ANSA) – ROME, SEPTEMBER 17 – “Record gas prices, inflation and higher rates: difficult context in the second half of 2022 The scenario turns downward”. Thus the Confindustria Study Center in its Congiuntura flash where it is emphasized that “the resilience of the industry is on the ropes, after too many months of the impact of expensive energy on the margins of companies: investments will suffer”. For Csc, “record inflation erodes household income and threatens consumption, protected (in part and not for long) from accumulated savings and the rates raised by the ECB” will give a further recessionary impulse. “And the impact of the price of gas on the Italian economy could be worth up to 3.2% of GDP in the two-year period 2022-23. The estimate of the Confidustria Study Center is obtained with two simulations. With the price of gas, up to the end of 2023 at 235 € / mwh (average value for August) the impact for the Italian economy (compared to the average price of 99 euros in the first 6 months of 2022) is estimated in a lower GDP growth of 2.2%. With the price at € 298 / mwh (the average level expected from futures) the reduction in the two-year period would be 3.2%, with 383 thousand and 582 thousand less employed in the two scenarios. (ANSA).
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