The cat to peel will be the turn of the next government and it will not be a kitten but a mountain lion. “The winter will be difficult,” the European Commissioner for Economy admitted two days ago Paolo Gentiloni but there is the case that it is a euphemism or an exercise in understatement. The already dramatic crisis promises to worsen and not only due to the inflationary consequences of a rise in energy prices that derive only in part from the Ukrainian war.
On the board of ECB, last Wednesday, the hawks won. The rate hike will be 75 basis points, a record since the euro was born. It’s not the first, as there was another 50 points just a few months ago, and it won’t be the last. There ECB in fact, it promises new hikes in the short term. How effective the financial squeeze can be on the cost of money against inflation which is largely, though not exclusively, due to the cost of energy and raw materials is an unknown factor to be verified. But so is the extent of the recessive effect on a fragile economy like Italy’s. The ceiling on the price of gas, considered to date a kind of magic bullet, will instead have limited effects, especially if, as per current orientation, it will only concern the price of Russian gas. In this case it will be a war move but with limited repercussions on the prices of that 91 per cent of the needs that the EU imports from countries other than Russia.
In this situation, Dragons he decided to leave the poison ball to his successors. In part, the premier can do nothing else, since his government is a few days before the deadline. In part, however, the very large margins left by Mattarella they would have made it possible to do something more that the outgoing premier preferred to avoid because he was convinced that the budget gap necessary for shock therapy would mean sending a dangerous signal of weakness. But perhaps also because he believes that the responsibility for making difficult and risky decisions no longer rests with him. All the more so suspecting, probably with good reason, that the parties were counting precisely on his outgoing government to shoulder the responsibilities of those choices.
It is comprensible. But it is also true that the situation calls for decisive interventions and the decree that the government is about to pass will be a hot panic. The song of the duck instead of that of the swan. The available figure is still unknown. The optimists speak of 13 billion, the pessimists of 10. They would be few in either case. For now, the budget change approved by Cdm and which will now have to be voted by qualified majority from Parliament is 6.2 billion, which constitute the bulk of the fund for the next dl, as clarified by Palazzo Chigi. It means that already reaching 12-13 billion will be difficult.CopyAMP code.
With such a small coverage, the decree will be able to extend the tax credit but not raise it compared to the current 25 percent and even according to Letta a doubling would be necessary. Even minimal measures such as discounted layoffs and payment by installments bills are in the balance, not to mention shock measures such as the drastic increase in the tax on exprofits energy, where political will would be enough since there is no coverage problem but rather since it is a question of funds that would enter and allow greater freedom of movement in aid. If we then consider that the crisis touches families And businesses and that if there is little for the latter, the former will be almost completely ignored, it becomes clear why not acting now means not avoiding but postponing drastic choices that will be imposed by authority in the coming months.
The energy strategy itself will depend on the determination and speed of the next majority. The government has bet everything on the maxi regasification plants of Piombino And Ravenna, with the former expected to go live within a few months. With the population of Piombino drastically contrary will not be easy. Especially since it is probably illusory to think that the next government can be born and overcome the running-in phase in a few weeks. In short, that of challenging the polls right now risks turning out to be a really heavy responsibility. But that falls not on the shoulders of the Count alone but of the entire political system because everyone actively contributed to the explosion, no one excluded. None at all: not even Mario Draghi.