A possible blocking of Russian gas imports would send the European Union in recession and, even if the Union has “a credible strategy” to mitigate the worst effects of a stop to gas imports from Russia in 2023, the effect will not be painless.
This, in summary, is the opinion expressed in the last analysis of Fitch Rating published yesterday, September 1st, which estimates a negative effect on EU GDP of 1.5-2% and in particular of 3% on Germany and of 2.5% on Italy in 2023.
Despite recent efforts to diversify import sources, analysts say the economic repercussions of an outage are still very high.
The effects on GDP, which for Fitch will be more evident in 2023, should however abate drastically in 2024 as production structures and consumption patterns adapt and new gas import infrastructures come into operation.
According to analysts theItaly enters the Russian gas outage scenario with a wider range of options of other EU states, in light of its operating capacity for LNG regasification of 14 billion cubic meters and the existing gas pipeline with Algeria. But, as we have already explained on these pages, in any case an emergency plan is needed to prevent the effects of a possible rationing of gas supplies to our country.
In the meantime, the debate on the introduction of maximum price caps to imports of gas and oil and Russia seems increasingly determined to block the supply of oil and petroleum products to countries that will adopt the so-called “price caps” (see Gas price caps and crude oil supplies: towards the tug-of-war between the West and Russia).CopyAMP code.
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