The Fed minutes confirm the rate hike line for the whole of 2023. China, on the rise, could help give a boost to stock prices
The Fed orders the markets to stop, but the Bull is not there. Despite strong calls for caution in the minutes of the central bank’s mid-December meeting, the stock market rally at the beginning of the year did not stop, fueled by the collapse in energy prices and by the push from China.
Cautious opening in Milan after the rally
- After three days of strong increases, the European stock exchanges open slightly lower this morning, EuroStoxx50 index futures -0.2%. But the most eagerly awaited appointment is for 11, when Istat will release the data on Italian EU harmonized inflation, in the hope that the downward trend that has emerged in Germany and France will be confirmed. The consensus expects +12.3%, slightly cooling from the November figure (+12.6%).
- By extension, the recovery of BTPs continues: the 10-year yield dropped yesterday by 21 points to 4.27%, the spread with the Bund at 2.26% (-11 basis points) is reduced to 201 points.
The ECB curbs Italian fears about BTPs
- The ECB, heedless of the Italian protests, is preparing to close the umbrella protecting the Bel Paese’s securities. In December, the ECB reduced its reinvestments in Italian public sector securities by 2.139 billion euros under the program Quantitative easing. This is what the central bank reports, which in November had reduced reinvestments in Italian public securities by 2.967 billion.
- The bulletin of the ECB but throw water on the fire. The prospects for the Italian debt are not dramatic, because inflation, we read, is destined to cause an increase in nominal GDP and a decrease in the debt/GDP ratio. Furthermore, the increase in rates will not affect the stock of securities already issued.
Hong Kong flies, analysts promote the Dragon
The run of the Chinese Stock Exchange could help give a boost to the price lists. Hong Kong is starting to close its fourth consecutive session higher, the Hang Seng index rises by 1% and returns to levels not seen since July. In Hang Seng Tech, which since the beginning of the year has gained almost 9%, Alibaba +3% is up again today.
The CSI300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists marks an increase of 1.7%. The yuan climbs back to a four-month high. Meanwhile, the Chinese macroeconomic picture is improving, the Caixin PMI non-manufacturing index rises to 48 from 46.7 in December.
Despite the skepticism of the scientific authorities on the state of the pandemic, Beijing insists on the policy of reopening the economy in forced stages, accelerating the stimuli for real estate. Analysts thus revise their growth estimates upwards: for Generali Investment and UBS, GDP is set to rise by 4.8% in 2023. Even more positive are Mizuho +5.1% and Citi which forecasts a rebound in growth to 5.3%.
Mitsui grows up in Jefferies capital
Seoul stocks are up 0.4%. BSE Sensex Mumbai on parity. The Nikkei Times anticipates the purchase of a significant stake, up to 50%, of a stake in Jefferies, one of the big names on Wall Street, by Sumitomo Mitsui.
Amazon cuts 18 thousand jobs, Fed increasingly hawkish
Futures on American stock markets showed little movement, positive yesterday despite the warnings of the Fed which however held back the rise in the final: S&P 500 +0.75%, Dow Jones +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.7%.
The central bank, increasingly worried by tensions on the labor market, will certainly have welcomed Amazon’s cuts. The company announced the cut of 18,000 jobs, however, ensuring that “we work to support those affected by offering packages that include a payment, health benefits and help to find a job”.
The message of the Fed minutes was very harsh and explicit. More interest rate hikes will be needed “for a while” and there is no intention of cutting them during 2023. Many participants underlined the danger of easing prematurely the restrictive policy. Another 50-point increase is looming in early February.
Gas in free fall, gold still rises
Brent oil is still below 80 dollars, yesterday falling sharply -5.3%. In the first two sessions, crude oil lost -9.5% against an increase in US strategic inventories of 3.3 million barrels..
The gas bubble deflates. Natural gas on the European circuit fell to 65.0 euros per MWh, down by -10%. From 1st January 2023 -15%. The high temperatures have allowed Europe to maintain its stocks above 80%, well above the historical average for the period, which stands at 70%, as confirmed by the spokeswoman for the European Commission.CopyAMP code
Gold continues to advance: 1855 dollars an ounce, fifth in a row, favored by the easing of tensions on interest rates and the low volatility of the dollar
A flying taxi for Stellantis, Exane promotes Generali
The Stellantis flying taxi is at the start. The automotive group and the American Archer have signed a partnership for the production of a vertical take-off electric aircraft, which will be able to carry five people with a range of 161 kilometres. Production will begin in 2024 in Covington, Georgia. The aircraft will be intended for short-haul back-to-back flights of around 32km, with a recharge time of around 10 minutes between flights.
Rumors of a sale of Edison by EDF following the French group’s nationalization and delisting plan are “insubstantial,” said Edison CEO Nicola Monti.
generals. Exane BNP Paribas raises rating to outperform from Neutral.
THEold. Morgan Stanley starts hedging with a target price of 5.60 euros.
Moncler Barclays cuts the target price to 55 euros.
Piaggio. Sales data shows that the Italian two-wheeler market ended December with a 4% year-on-year rise.