The 2022 that has just ended has been one of the most difficult years since the post-war period on the economic front. In particular, households and businesses in Italy and Europe have had to face the expensive energydue to thedizzying rise in prices related to raw materials such as gas and oil.
A phenomenon which has worsened in particular following thePutin’s invasion of Ukraine last February 24 and the consequent sanctions activated by the West against Moscow. Before that, Russia was in fact the largest supplier of oil and gas to the countries of the European Union. Sourcing restrictions have therefore led to both a shortage and higher costs for both products.
What will the gas and oil prices be for 2023
With the start of the new year, the question everyone is asking is what the cost of gas and oil will be for 2023. In particular, Al Jazeera has addressed this question to various internationally known industry analysts. Unfortunately, the responses collected by the Qatar broadcaster are not reassuring.
In fact, not only should prices not fall for at least the next two years, but 2023 could bring with it other increases that Western governments will have to counter to mitigate the effects on citizens.
Despite the good news that ended 2022 with the price of gas dropping from $338 per megawatt hour at the end of August to around $98 per megawatt hour in December on the Dutch TTF, and the crude value dropped in the same period considered from 128 to 76 dollarsthe factors that have allowed this decline may not be confirmed in 2023. Not the best scenario if we consider that from January to December of last year the price of petrol more than doubled.
Here because prices at the end of 2022 have gone down, but bills are going up
The factors that will lead to a new expensive energy
As mentioned, the factors that have led to a decline in recent months are difficult to replicate. In fact, the race for supplies, caused by the risk of running out of supplies for the winter, has led European states to fill their storage capacity by 95%.well above the 85% target.CopyAMP code.
To this is also added an element that one should hope will not be repeated. Namely a very warm autumn, linked to global warming, which has led to a delay in turning on the heating for offices and private homes. The possibility that such a situation could therefore lead to new, and perhaps more serious, problems to be faced.
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Because we need to focus on renewables
So, out of stock new volumes of gas will have to be sought and, as could also happen for oil, exporting countries could increase their selling prices, in turn to face the increase linked to wheat and other food products.
An effective solution could be represented by renewable sources. However, as revealed by Agora Energiewende, a Berlin-based think tank, it will be necessary to wait at least until 2027 for this type of energy to replace about 80% of the volume made up of Russian gas before the war in Ukraine.