Ukraine, the calendar of war and the gloomy scenario of the American generals – Corriere.it

Ukraine, the calendar of war and the gloomy scenario of the American generals – Corriere.it
Ukraine, the calendar of war and the gloomy scenario of the American generals – Corriere.it
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Of Joseph Sarcina

After the stalemate of winter, fighting will resume in spring: for this reason Zelensky asks for more weapons. And the front ready to send them is expanding (even if Germany’s postponement weighs)

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The Ramstein summit has updated the war calendar. The head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, has sealed the forecasts released by various American and European research centres. In the spring there will be an even bloodier and more brutal head-on confrontation between the Russians and the Ukrainians. Putin’s army will relaunch the offensive from east to west, focusing, among other things, on the reconquest of Kherson, the city that leads to Odessa, but which also guarantees the safety of Crimea.

It is also necessary to note the sentence that General Mark Milley, the commander of the American armed forces, pronounced on Friday at the end of the press conference: it is hard to imagine that in 2023 the Ukrainians will be able to liberate the territories occupied by the Russiansas of February 24, 2022.

If we line up Austin’s words and those of Milley we get a gloomy scenario. First: the risk that the Ukrainians could be overwhelmed by the shock force of 300,000 enemy soldiers will soon reappear. A danger thwarted last year. But this time, the Americans argue, the Russians might be better organized. Second: Milley’s forecast for 2023 means that the United States does not see the possibility of negotiations between now and the end of December. The military and political levels overlap. The Pentagon urges allies to deliver the weapons promised to Volodymyr Zelensky as soon as possible. Not only that, according to Washington, Ukrainian soldiers need to be trained quickly to use the most sophisticated weapons, such as Patriot missiles.

At the same time the western coalition must equip itself to hold up in the long run. Not easy: a bit like preparing to run both the sprint and the marathon. In this sense, as Zelensky said, time is now a strategic weapon, just like jets and artillery. The interpretation of the war almanac has triggered a political dispute, with potentially insidious effects. At the Ramstein summit, an ever wider array welcomed the message of dramatic urgency communicated by Zelensky and relaunched by Austin. Alongside the United States we find not only the United Kingdom, Poland and the Baltics. That is to say the most interventionist countries since the first day of the war. Now, however, there are also Canada, Sweden, Holland, Denmark, Norway and, as Defense Minister Guido Crosetto has declared, also Italy. This is why the postponement of the German decision to send Leopard 2 panzers has aroused not only clamor, but also concern. In the coming days, many governments, starting with the American one, will ask German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to focus on the right year. Not about the scars of 1941 (the Nazi attack on Russia), but about the grave dangers ahead in 2023.

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January 21, 2023 (change January 21, 2023 | 22:30)

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The article is in Italian

Tags: Ukraine calendar war gloomy scenario American generals Corriere .it

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