Welcome friends of weathersicily.it. As widely announced, the phase of atmospheric stability in our region continues. Temperatures have undergone a slight drop, and by Monday 11 September 2022, they will reach values very close to the climatic average of the period. Subsequently, a new return of the African heat is very likely, which just from mid-next week should forcefully return to dominate the scene in our region. But many of you are asking us, when will this anomalous heat end? (we define it as such because until today, September, it was among the hottest ever in the climatic history of our island). With the help of long-term weather models, we try to give you an answer, underlining however that it is a trend and not a specific forecast!
As we can see from the graph in question, which summarizes the average rainfall and temperatures at 850/500 hPa of the American meteorological model (GFS), around the 20th of the month, the scenario in our region should take on more autumnal connotations; in many of his modeling “releases”, he hypothesizes a reinforcement of the sub-tropical anticyclone near Spain and the United Kingdom, thus facilitating the descent along its eastern edge of cooler eastern currents. If this vision were confirmed, (other alternate-phase models also hypothesize this scenario), our region could enter a long unstable phase, with temperatures that could even drop below the seasonal average. It is still very early to give a detailed forecast on the matter, but the chances that this scenario could come true are increasing more and more. So September would seem to want to give us a more eventful third decade.