Pandemic, slight drop in cases in Molise and throughout Italy. But it is the stasis before the autumn ascent

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The pandemic in our country is in a plateau phase. After the slight rise in cases detected in the week from 17 to 22 August, here is that the curve slightly decreases in the following (23-30 August) as shown by the data of the usual Gimbe Foundation monitoring. There was a slight descent (like all other regions of Italy) also in Molise, where the percentage change in new cases compared to the previous week was -14.2%. Decrease that affected both provinces (Campobasso -14.6% and Isernia -13.6%).

These i Italian data in detail, and in comparison with the previous report:

Deaths: 574 (-24.4%), of which 87 referred to previous periods
Intensive care: -28 (-11%)
Hospitalized with symptoms: -951 (-14.9%)
Home isolation: -90,871 (-12.2%)
New cases: 149,701 (-15.8%)
Currently positive cases: -91.850 (-12.2%)

The plateau of the curve, on the other hand, means precisely this: a situation of substantial stasis, with marginal rebounds in the number of infections. The president of Gimbe himself explained it, Nino Cartabellotta: “After last week’s ‘rebound’, the number of new weekly cases (in Italy, ed) returns to settle around 149,000, with a 7-day moving average of over 21,000 cases per day, documenting that from half August, beyond modest fluctuations, the curve is in a plateau phase ”.

Returning to the Molise datathe rate of hospitalization in the medical areas it is still a little higher than the national average (10.8% vs 8.5) while for intensive care the percentage of employment of Covid patients has been zero, as the few inpatients present in the ward until a few days ago died. The national average, on the other hand, is 2.5%.

However, the pandemic has not disappeared and will not disappear in the coming months. What most likely awaits us is a strong rise in infections. There are those who have defined it as ‘black autumn’ but even without wishing to give any connotations of any kind, we can affirm – on the basis of what all scientists are saying, as the WHO did a few days ago – that a new wave there will be, and it will probably be chargeable to new variant, the Centaurus or BA.2.75.

But let’s try to contextualize. As she reported Fabrizio Pregliasco, virologist and medical director of the Irccs Galeazzi Orthopedic Institute of Milan, in an interview with Repubblica, the pandemic is a little less pandemic than before, in the sense that it is in a transition phase towards the endemic trend. In light of what have been the pandemics of the past, such as the flu virus, it is presumable that instead of a continuous and constant presence – more or less high – of the virus, undulating trends. Waves, if all goes well, like those produced by a stone in a pond. So with a tendency, over several years, to reduction. If not, a variant that is particularly different from those currently circulating will be inserted“.

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And the next wave will be juxtaposed in a few weeks, thanks to a series of factors, which the virologist, with extreme clarity, explained as follows: “These waves are favored by different situations. For example, we know that in autumn-winter a series of facilitating and triggering factors are combined: the reopening of schools and the massive resumption of industrial activities, the fact of stay more indoors, thermal changes. All conditions that facilitate an increase in diffusion. In addition, we have variants that can evade the immune response of both the recovered and, in some way, also the vaccinated. To this, again to explain why we will see a wave trend, we must add the fact that the population of susceptible subjects periodically widens and shrinks, like an accordion: for example, now many people have become ill with Omicron, and therefore the number of people who can become infected has decreased“.

The new variant in the eye of the storm has been identified in Italy in only one case but it is completely evident (to science and microbiology in particular) that it will only be a matter of time and then this sub-variant of Omicron 2 (which is being studied but which seems to be more transmissible) will undermine the Omicron 5, currently dominant.

The Italian (and Molise) population is largely vaccinated, but the protection given by the vaccine, although very high as regards the possibility of contracting the disease in a severe form, it decreases over time. It is clear that if the cases increase by a large extent (as expected) statistically, the cases of hospitalization and death will also increase, although not in the same way. And this especially concerns people with frailty and over the years.

The ‘flaw’, as known, is in the fourth dose that few have chosen to do and this will have a price alas also in terms of human lives. For Gimbe, therefore, “with the autumn season approaching it is necessary to accelerate the vaccination of over 60 and frail people as much as possible, without waiting for the ‘updated’ vaccines for which – among other things – there is still no evidence of efficacy in preventing serious illness , on which the ‘old vaccine’ remains an excellent weapon “.


The article is in Italian

Tags: Pandemic slight drop cases Molise Italy stasis autumn ascent

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