As always, at the end of the year, the total projections of the level of the indices for the end of next year started. In particular, large investment banks and economists divulge “forecasts” everywhere (what a bad word, if only that is usually used for the weather) on the values in which we will find ourselves at the end of the following year.
Things like that to understand each other (see image below)…
Now, given that history teaches us that they rarely get caught, and assuming that by a stroke of luck someone manages to predict the index points, I wonder at this point why Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) doesn’t sell everything to simply go short , given that today we are over 4000 points and therefore it would be a guaranteed Gain….
The point is, that unfortunately this type of exercise is both harmful and counterproductive, because while on the one hand this type of activity can simply be useful for having a chat at the bar (like when you watch a game and compete with your friend to establish the poorest player), on the other hand many people think that they really know how the future will go, and consequently they invest accordingly, forgetting about the only things capable of bringing us results on the markets, which are always the same:
- Asset Allocation
- Accumulation plans
- Emotional management
- Time and patience
Just look at how few people took the rebound between October and November, where the index recovered from its October 13 low, more than 15%.
And yet, if we look at the current equity positioning of investors (see image below), they are all still scared or cautious because…you never know we’ll go back down!
But the question is: who can know for sure?
Source: Deutsche Bank.
Have you ever noticed that in all market views, in all forecasts or in historical performance calculations, there are always statements such as “past performances are not indicative of future returns”, in your opinion why?CopyAMP code
Because nobody knows the future.
So if you have a minimum of knowledge of the markets, in December fix the 4 things seen above by 15/12 (which coincides with my birthday by the way) and rather then concentrate on letting the markets and the your investments and enjoy Christmas and family, this is truly a certainty!
Until next time!
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