The domino effect risk and the Quirinal stakes: after Draghi only the urns

The domino effect risk and the Quirinal stakes: after Draghi only the urns
The domino effect risk and the Quirinal stakes: after Draghi only the urns

He hasn’t lost his patience, God forbid. But certainly – summarizes those who know him well – yesterday «he was not in central banker mode». In his reply to the Chamber, in fact, Mario Draghi sets aside the usual institutional aplomb. And with more enthusiasm than usual he summarizes a parliamentary debate that should not leave room for ambiguity, unlike what has instead happened in the last 48 hours. And he does it with a summary of the positions on the pitch that is quite eloquent. There are, he says, “two points of view”. The first, he explains, “is mine”: is that “Ukraine must defend itself” and “the sanctions and the sending of weapons are precisely for this”. The second, however, “is different”: it is that “Ukraine must not defend itself, no sanctions are needed and there is no need to send weapons”, because “Russia is too strong”. And therefore «why fight it?», Better «let it enter and Ukraine submit», after all «what do these Ukrainians want?». In short, either with or against Kiev, tertium non datur. Because in such a framework it is evident that any distinction only legitimizes the invasion decided unilaterally by Moscow and weakens the line chosen by the European Union and NATO (not only in agreement in supporting Ukraine, but also determined on sanctions and sending of weapons).

In short, Draghi’s is a clear-cut stance. With which the premier goes to collect the go-ahead from Parliament on the eve of the EU Council in Brussels scheduled for today and tomorrow (to be followed in a week by the G7 in Bavaria and the NATO summit in Madrid). With all due respect to the split that took place in the M5s and the threats of guerrilla warfare coming from Giuseppe Conte’s loyalists. Among them there are those who theorize that breaking the war would be an own goal and would legitimize the tear of Luigi Di Maio (a difficult argument to contest), but during the day there are many in the Transatlantic who hope for scenarios from the last days of Pompeii. There are those who hypothesize to break immediately, those to do so on the Aid decree (specifically on the waste-to-energy plant in Rome) or perhaps wait for September. Conte thinks about it in the late afternoon to calm the waters: support for the government is not in question and no one will ask for Di Maio’s resignation as foreign minister.

Truce, therefore. So much so that there is a certain optimism in Palazzo Chigi. But, of course, in the awareness that the political framework has never been so unstable. And that the domino effect is one step away. The issue is not only how much Conte will hold up before he starts shelling the government in full Papeete style, but also how the balance within the majority will change. Enrico Letta’s so-called “campo largo”, to say, has never been so narrow. And it is clear that this risks having repercussions on the overall stability of the framework, given that the electoral campaign for the 2023 policies has in fact already begun. Draghi knows this well and his main concern is for the stability of the markets, which have been looking at Italy with particular apprehension for 48 hours. An issue that – among others on the table – was addressed yesterday at the Quirinale, during the traditional working lunch that precedes the EU Council between premier and head of state. The ministers of Economy (Daniele Franco), Defense (Lorenzo Guerini) and Economic Development (Giancarlo Giorgetti) were also present to discuss Ukraine and the reform of the EU treaties. No mention, of course, of fibrillation in the M5s. Even if the Colle line is clear on this point: the only alternative to the Draghi government is the vote.

The article is in Italian

Tags: domino effect risk Quirinal stakes Draghi urns

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